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A third-party TF2 case is not a Mann Co. crate: the site writes the contents and the odds. Which TF2 case opening sites publish them, and how to price one.
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On a case opening site you deposit TF2 items for balance and open cases the site made up itself, not Mann Co. crates. A case lists what is inside it and your chance of hitting each item. The result comes from a seeded random number, and the payout lands in your balance or as an item you can withdraw.
That is the difference from opening crates in game. Valve fixes what is in a TF2 crate and does not publish the odds; a third-party site picks its own contents, sets its own odds and tells you both before you open. Case simulators, which let you open crates for free with nothing at stake, are a third option if you want the animation without the cost.
Multiply each item’s value by its chance and add them up. That total is the expected return of the case, and it is below the case price on every site: the difference is the house edge. Cheap cases and expensive cases can carry different edges, so run the sum on the case you want to open, not on the site as a whole.
A provably fair case shows a hashed server seed before you open and reveals it after, so you can recompute the roll. Verify one opening on the fairness page. Then open the withdrawal page and confirm the items you might win are in stock.
Some sites offer a free case each day. Winnings come as balance, and the terms say whether you must wager it before you withdraw. Read those terms before you count the free case as value.
TF2Easy and TF2 Royal both list cases. Howl has no case game in its lobby, only a daily case in the VIP panel. Compare all three on the best TF2 gambling sites page, and see TF2 case battles for the head-to-head version.
Some are and some are not. A legit site publishes the drop odds for every case, lets you verify each opening with a seed, and pays out items from a stocked bot inventory. Check all three before you deposit, and start with an amount you can lose.
In game, you buy a Mann Co. key and use it on a crate from your backpack. On a third-party site, you deposit items for balance and open the site's own cases, which pay out in balance or as an item you can withdraw.
On average you get back less than you pay in, both on Steam and on third-party sites, because the expected return of a case is below its price. Treat case opening as entertainment with a cost, not as a way to profit.
Valve does not publish odds for TF2 crates. Third-party sites set their own odds per case and show them on the case page, so you can multiply each item's value by its chance and see the expected return before you open.
For in-game crates it depends on current key and unusual prices, which change; a ranked guide is planned. On a third-party site, the best case is the one whose expected return sits closest to its price, and you can work that out from the odds table.